I prefer a more scientific approach. Indeed, I have reduced it to a formula.
P x S x A= Prepping index.
P = Probability. In other words we should prep for likely events.
S = Severity. It is better to be prepared for severe events than trivial misfortune.
A= Action ability. There is no point in preparing for events that cannot be prepared for.
I will give an example of the formula in action.
HEART ATTACK.
Probability = 7 (heart attack is the most common cause of death among men in rich countries).
Severity = 8 (not always fatal but always unpleasant).
Action ability= 6 (there are many simple heart attack remedies such as eating oily fish or carrying aspirin)
This results in a prepping value of 336 (7x8x6)
In contrast we see a much lower figure from the 2012 Mayan nonsense.
2012 END OF THE WORLD!
Probability = 1 (I am being very generous here).
Severity = 10 (what could be worse than the end of the world?)
Action ability = 0 (if the world ends then it does not matter what we do.)
This results in a prepping value of 0 (1x10x0)
Most other eventualities fall between these two extremes. This is an interesting way of looking at things and a useful one. It may also be used to asses events that are merely unpleasant or expensive such as the common cold or losing ones car keys. This means that one spends time on what is important and avoids worrying about things that either do not matter or cannot be changed.
THE COMMON COLD.
Probability= 9
Severity= 1
Action ability= 4 (there is no cure for the cold but you are far less likely to get one if you eat well).
This results in a prepping index of 36.
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